333 Smith Rd

Adairville, KY 42202

$214,900F

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,555 sqft · Built 1930 · Other · Active · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,292/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $-300/mo
• Annual: $-3,598/yr
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.98%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $60,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-300 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (39.9% below list).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (39.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#353 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Logan County (rural): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #32 of 165 in KY (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Logan County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $144k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.