1664 5th St

Madison, IL 62060

$25,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,345/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax + insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $862/mo
• Annual: $10,338/yr
• Cap rate: 47.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 147.69%
• DSCR: 7.57
• 1% rule: 5.38%
• Cash to close: $7,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $862 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#861 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Madison CUSD 12 (suburban): math 2% / reading 4% proficiency, ranked #619 of 620 in IL (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Madison Senior High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #614 of 693 statewide, top 95%, 159 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 84% district-wide (84 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.