2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,211 sqft ·
Built 1884
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,801/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$414
Tax + insurance
−$132
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$378
Net cashflow
$877/mo
Annual
$10,522/yr
Cap rate
19.61%
Cash-on-cash
47.57%
DSCR
3.12
1% rule
2.28%
Cash to close
$22,120
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $79k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $877 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Thompson Middle School (math 6% / reading 13%, grade F, #479 of 493 statewide, top 97%, 397 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 76% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Saginaw School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1884 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 7.8% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $1,801/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 1416% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1884 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: siding
— Significant wear and tear
Major: landscaping
— Overgrown and unkempt
Major: exterior paint
— Weathered and faded
CashFlowRE · CFR-NF1YK1CN0JGT67
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29