11802 Mcpherson Landing Rd

Tuscaloosa, AL 35405

$220,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,596/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$367
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $-260/mo
• Annual: $-3,115/yr
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (27.5% below list).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 457 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.