3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,152 sqft ·
Built 2006
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 42 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,542/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$707
Tax + insurance
−$112
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$324
Net cashflow
$398/mo
Annual
$4,777/yr
Cap rate
9.83%
Cash-on-cash
12.65%
DSCR
1.56
1% rule
1.14%
Cash to close
$37,772
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Rutherford High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,337 students, 63% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 262 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $21k; list at $135k implies a 542% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.8% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NG9JQ4CB4KG7BJ
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29