18120 Bridlewood Ln

Lake Land'Or, VA 22546

$330,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,533/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax + insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-118/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $92,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-118/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (23.2% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $253k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 20% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $280k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Land'Or — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.