4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,749 sqft ·
Built 1953
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 5 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,346/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,363
Tax + insurance
−$314
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$493
Net cashflow
$176/mo
Annual
$2,117/yr
Cap rate
7.11%
Cash-on-cash
2.91%
DSCR
1.13
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$72,772
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (9.7% below list).
Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $235k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 85/100 on livability (#16 in MD, #510 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Dundalk Elementary (math 6% / reading 8%, grade F, #726 of 860 statewide, top 86%, 743 students, 74% FRL); Dundalk Middle (math 2% / reading 13%, grade F, #217 of 225 statewide, top 97%, 860 students, 64% FRL); Dundalk High (math 5% / reading 33%, grade F, #177 of 222 statewide, top 80%, 2,193 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 39% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 11% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baltimore County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NGP1Z61FWZTBTP
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29