3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,842 sqft ·
Built 1972
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 28 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,425/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$131
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$299
Net cashflow
$129/mo
Annual
$1,553/yr
Cap rate
7.23%
Cash-on-cash
3.36%
DSCR
1.15
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$46,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (13.6% below list).
It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $143k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
Stone County School District (town): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #15 of 130 in MS (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Stone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.5% in Wiggins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NGQZMSE3392ASN
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29