The Birch Plan

Nocatee, FL 32081

$426,940F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,845 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 748 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,694/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,655
• Tax + insurance: −$844
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-1,370/mo
• Annual: $-16,438/yr
• Cap rate: 3.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.60%
• DSCR: 0.48
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $141,739

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $427k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (36.9% below list).
• It's been on market 748 days — a 12% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $269k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Valley Ridge Academy (math 87% / reading 81%, grade A+, #55 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 1,306 students, 14% FRL); Allen D Nease Senior High School (math 72% / reading 78%, grade A-, #40 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,214 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 648 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 748 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.