Aplin Plan

Georgetown, TX 78628

$354,999F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,966 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax + insurance: −$600
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-590/mo
• Annual: $-7,080/yr
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.03%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $100,729

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $355k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-590 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (22.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (32.4% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $240k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#18 in TX, #1,294 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Georgetown ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #474 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Raye Mccoy El (math 49% / reading 53%, grade C-, #818 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 524 students, 24% FRL); Douglas Benold Middle (math 52% / reading 50%, grade C, #326 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 664 students, 26% FRL); Georgetown H S (math 29% / reading 51%, grade F, #809 of 1,632 statewide, top 50%, 2,013 students, 27% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Georgetown ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 2105 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 87d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.6% in Georgetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.