3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,300 sqft ·
Built 1949
· Other
· Active
· 177 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,515/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$629
Tax + insurance
−$95
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$318
Net cashflow
$472/mo
Annual
$5,667/yr
Cap rate
11.02%
Cash-on-cash
16.87%
DSCR
1.75
1% rule
1.26%
Cash to close
$33,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $120k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $472 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 56/100 on livability (#171 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
Clovis Municipal Schools (town): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #13 of 29 in NM (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 169 units permitted in Curry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Curry County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29