4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,452 sqft ·
Built 1904
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 49 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,658/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$918
Tax + insurance
−$155
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$348
Net cashflow
$237/mo
Annual
$2,848/yr
Cap rate
7.92%
Cash-on-cash
5.81%
DSCR
1.26
1% rule
0.95%
Cash to close
$49,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (5.2% below list).
It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $166k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 194 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $34k; list at $175k implies a 422% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $1,658/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 1057% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NHPJS45564V41M
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29