700 Lake Orchid Cir #209

Florida Ridge, FL 32962

$164,500D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · Built 1995 · Condo · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,101/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$863
• Tax + insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$565
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-133/mo
• Annual: $-1,602/yr
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.75%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $46,060

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $164k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (14.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#353 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Indian River Academy (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C-, #1,035 of 2,144 statewide, top 49%, 430 students, 81% FRL); Vero Beach High School (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 2,847 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.5% in Florida Ridge — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?