2195 Pinetree Dr

Cumming, GA 30041

$400,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,220 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,188/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$476
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-54/mo
• Annual: $-654/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $112,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-654/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $390k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (20.3% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $319k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#29 in GA, #3,797 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Forsyth County (suburban): math 62% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #5 of 174 in GA (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cumming Elementary School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #531 of 1,228 statewide, top 45%, 922 students, 55% FRL); Otwell Middle School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D+, #89 of 470 statewide, top 20%, 1,034 students, 44% FRL); Forsyth Central High School (math 15% / reading 37%, grade F, #175 of 424 statewide, top 42%, 2,372 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 15% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Forsyth County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 822 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,525 units permitted in Forsyth County in 2024 (810 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Forsyth County population projected at +71% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 20 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $400k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.8% in Cumming — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.