19 Water St

Cortland, NY 13045

$314,900C

11 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,370 sqft · Built 1880 · MultiFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,979/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax + insurance: −$873
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$836
• Net cashflow: $619/mo
• Annual: $7,425/yr
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.42%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $88,172

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 4-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $309/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $315k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $305k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#201 in NY, #3,105 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Cortland City School District (town): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #368 of 590 in NY (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.4%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Cortland County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cortland County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $315k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 6.2% in Cortland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,979/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1488% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.