209 Ceasar Pl

Hilton Head Island, SC 29926

$474,000D-

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,918 sqft · Built 2019 · Townhouse · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,903/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,486
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$820
• Net cashflow: $247/mo
• Annual: $2,969/yr
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.24%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $132,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $474k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $390k (17.7% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($431k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $390k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#157 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Beaufort 01 (town): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #17 of 80 in SC (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 385 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,824 units permitted in Beaufort County in 2024 (618 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Beaufort County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 12711% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $274k; list at $474k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.0% in Hilton Head Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,903/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 562% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.