321 S 4th St

Barnsdall, OK 74002

$170,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,102 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,299/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-89/mo
• Annual: $-1,065/yr
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (23.6% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#166 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barnsdall (rural): math 20% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #373 of 513 in OK (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Barnsdall Es (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #479 of 845 statewide, top 63%, 207 students, 0% FRL); Barnsdall Jhs (math 12% / reading 22%); Barnsdall Hs (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #361 of 447 statewide, top 94%, 133 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 89 units permitted in Osage County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osage County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $170k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.