76 Stone Rd

Northville, NY 12835

$79,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Pending · 247 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $953/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $281/mo
• Annual: $3,371/yr
• Cap rate: 10.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.07%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($953 rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Edinburg Common School District (rural): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #739 of 755 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Edinburg Common School (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 52 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 25% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Edinburg Common School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $80k implies a 357% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.