3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
906 sqft ·
Built 1982
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 101 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$6,334/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,326
Tax + insurance
−$809
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,330
Net cashflow
$-132/mo
Annual
$-1,579/yr
Cap rate
6.10%
Cash-on-cash
-0.68%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$231,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $825k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $802k (2.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $633k (23.2% below list).
It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($751k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $633k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Sea Gate Elementary School (math 86% / reading 81%, grade A+, #60 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 703 students, 26% FRL); Naples High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,719 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 55% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 479 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $124k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $630k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $6,334/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($117k/yr) (locally 311% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NM7CEWETHRCQJV
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29