367 369 Hawkins St

Providence, RI 02904

$469,500D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Built 1989 · MultiFamily · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,171/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,462
• Tax + insurance: −$724
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$876
• Net cashflow: $109/mo
• Annual: $1,302/yr
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.99%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $131,460

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $470k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $417k (11.2% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($455k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $417k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#2 in RI, #794 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Providence (urban): math 8% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #34 of 39 in RI (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: George J. West El. School (math 7% / reading 13%, grade F, #148 of 167 statewide, top 90%, 601 students, 84% FRL); Nathanael Greene Middle (math 10% / reading 23%, grade F, #37 of 57 statewide, top 64%, 808 students, 85% FRL); Central High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #53 of 58 statewide, top 96%, 1,302 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 11 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $136k; list at $470k implies a 246% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Providence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,171/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 1176% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.