2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
886 sqft ·
Built 1982
· Condo
· Active
· 312 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,999/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$854
Tax + insurance
−$298
HOA
−$500
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$420
Net cashflow
$-73/mo
Annual
$-879/yr
Cap rate
6.24%
Cash-on-cash
-0.18%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
1.23%
Cash to close
$45,612
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $163k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-879/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (7.9% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
It's been on market 312 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $143k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Avalon Elementary School (math 47% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 346 students, 74% FRL); East Naples Middle School (math 56% / reading 44%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 854 students, 63% FRL); Naples High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,719 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 25% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11134% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $59k; list at $163k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 312 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
CashFlowRE · CFR-NMAYE09NAGT7M8
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29