302 Birch Ln

Tallahassee, FL 32301

$299,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,679 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,236/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$280
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-81/mo
• Annual: $-972/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-972/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (25.2% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Frank Hartsfield Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 309 students, 71% FRL); Fairview Middle School (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 747 students, 58% FRL); James Rickards High School (math 23% / reading 37%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 1,581 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 45% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Leon average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $299k implies a 245% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,236/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 2625% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.