4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,684 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Active
· 34 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,382/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,565
Tax + insurance
−$250
HOA
−$58
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$500
Net cashflow
$8/mo
Annual
$94/yr
Cap rate
6.32%
Cash-on-cash
0.11%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$83,578
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $285k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($94/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (16.4% below list).
It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $238k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Hitchcock Pri (453 students, 85% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 661 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NMNJ2W36CT6A4X
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29