3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,397 sqft ·
Built 2003
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 5 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,028/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$26
Tax + insurance
−$8
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$426
Net cashflow
$1,568/mo
Annual
$18,812/yr
Cap rate
382.54%
Cash-on-cash
1343.73%
DSCR
60.79
1% rule
40.56%
Cash to close
$1,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $5k).
Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Deer Point Elementary School (math 55% / reading 49%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 705 students, 55% FRL); Mowat Middle School (math 49% / reading 51%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 868 students, 49% FRL); A. Crawford Mosley High School (math 51% / reading 55%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,901 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 382.5% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NMRXW6594NQ00B
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29