2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,400 sqft ·
Built 1987
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 50 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,849/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$839
Tax + insurance
−$140
HOA
−$22
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$598
Net cashflow
$1,250/mo
Annual
$14,997/yr
Cap rate
15.67%
Cash-on-cash
33.48%
DSCR
2.49
1% rule
1.78%
Cash to close
$44,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#736 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $69k; list at $160k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 4.3% in Ridge Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NMSD9E4E5VA78E
· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29