4010 Main St

Scio, NY 14880

$49,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,613 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,090/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax + insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $522/mo
• Annual: $6,267/yr
• Cap rate: 19.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.68%
• DSCR: 3.03
• 1% rule: 2.22%
• Cash to close: $13,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $522 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#827 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Scio Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #571 of 755 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.