3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,275 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,300/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,050
Tax + insurance
−$652
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$483
Net cashflow
$-885/mo
Annual
$-10,617/yr
Cap rate
3.58%
Cash-on-cash
-9.70%
DSCR
0.57
1% rule
0.59%
Cash to close
$109,477
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $391k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-885 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (32.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (41.2% below list).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $230k (41.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 772 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
At $2,300/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NN9DB8A2XH8EN8
· Data 3 months agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29