5 bd · 4.0 ba ·
2,400 sqft ·
Built 1910
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,505/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$729
Tax + insurance
−$232
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$736
Net cashflow
$1,808/mo
Annual
$21,701/yr
Cap rate
21.91%
Cash-on-cash
55.76%
DSCR
3.48
1% rule
2.52%
Cash to close
$38,920
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $139k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $139k).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
In year one you build about $15k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $58k; list at $139k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 21.9% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,505/mo this rent would consume 122% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NNE71D0DVHYDPY
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29