150 Elswick Br

Virgie, KY 41538

$85,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $851/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $18/mo
• Annual: $219/yr
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.27%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($219/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($851 rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#468 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.