2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
784 sqft ·
Built 2016
· Manufactured
· Active
· 186 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,534/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$184
Tax + insurance
−$58
HOA
−$1,293
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$322
Net cashflow
$-323/mo
Annual
$-3,880/yr
Cap rate
-4.79%
Cash-on-cash
-39.59%
DSCR
-0.76
1% rule
4.38%
Cash to close
$9,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
Rent doesn't cover operating costs at any purchase price — skip.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Miller Elementary School (361 students, 76% FRL); Houck Middle School (949 students, 74% FRL); North Salem High School (2,239 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 53% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: HOA is 84% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $78k (69%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Cap rate -4.8% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?