11-46 Welling Ct

New York, NY 11102

$1,995,000B

66 bd · 39.0 ba · 4,425 sqft · Built 1990 · MultiFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $26,122/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,462
• Tax + insurance: −$3,445
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,486
• Net cashflow: $6,729/mo
• Annual: $80,748/yr
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.46%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $558,600

Investor read

• This is a 6 × 11-bed/6.5-bath units multifamily listed at $2.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($81k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($26k rent vs $2.00M).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.82M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.82M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($14k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $329k; list at $2.00M implies a 506% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $559k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$115k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $26,122/mo this rent would consume 324% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) (locally 2407% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.