3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,128 sqft ·
Built 1967
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 76 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,546/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$988
Tax + insurance
−$181
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$325
Net cashflow
$53/mo
Annual
$630/yr
Cap rate
7.05%
Cash-on-cash
2.71%
DSCR
1.12
1% rule
0.82%
Cash to close
$52,752
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($630/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (17.9% below list).
It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $155k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#54 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
Madison County (rural): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #19 of 129 in AL (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: 256 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).
Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.9% in Hazel Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29