Chestnut Plan

White House, TN 37188

$216,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,102 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 239 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,893/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,323
• Tax + insurance: −$421
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-249/mo
• Annual: $-2,983/yr
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.22%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $70,654

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $217k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-249 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (12.8% below list).
• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#46 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Robertson County (rural): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #82 of 139 in TN (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: White House Heritage Elementary School (math 36% / reading 34%, grade F, #316 of 952 statewide, top 33%, 607 students, 0% FRL); White House Heritage High School (math 29% / reading 37%, grade F, #54 of 332 statewide, top 16%, 1,001 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 42% district-wide (42 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 615 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 58d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 983 units permitted in Robertson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Robertson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in White House — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.