5985 4th St

Deale, MD 20751

$369,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,807/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$478
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-201/mo
• Annual: $-2,410/yr
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $103,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-201 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (24.1% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $281k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#166 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Monarch Global Academy Pcs Laurel Campus (math 13% / reading 28%, grade F, #341 of 860 statewide, top 40%, 830 students, 53% FRL); Southern Middle (math 8% / reading 39%, grade F, #118 of 225 statewide, top 54%, 755 students, 45% FRL); Southern High (math 52% / reading 73%, grade B-, #62 of 222 statewide, top 29%, 1,066 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 25% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $370k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.3% in Deale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.