3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,288 sqft ·
Built 1965
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 91 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,706/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,009
Tax + insurance
−$225
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$358
Net cashflow
$113/mo
Annual
$1,350/yr
Cap rate
7.41%
Cash-on-cash
3.98%
DSCR
1.18
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$53,900
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $192k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (11.4% below list).
It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $171k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Rockbridge County Public School District (town): math 43% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #80 of 131 in VA (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Fairfield Elementary (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 235 students, 75% FRL); Maury River Middle (math 38% / reading 63%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 502 students, 70% FRL); Rockbridge County High (math 52% / reading 82%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 994 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 37% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Rockbridge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Rockbridge County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 1.8% in Fairfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29