3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,503 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 77 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,458/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$512
Tax + insurance
−$228
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$306
Net cashflow
$412/mo
Annual
$4,940/yr
Cap rate
12.04%
Cash-on-cash
20.51%
DSCR
1.91
1% rule
1.49%
Cash to close
$27,328
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $412 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $92k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $675 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 89/100 on livability (#7 in IA, #119 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-.
Dubuque Community School District (urban): math 63% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #205 of 289 in IA (top 71%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 473 units permitted in Dubuque County in 2024 (319 in 5+ unit buildings).
Dubuque County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $76k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.5% in Dubuque — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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