6065 Shortleaf Dr

Lumberton, TX 77657

$329,900D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,054 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,580/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax + insurance: −$550
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-242/mo
• Annual: $-2,902/yr
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $92,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-242 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $258k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lumberton ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.