10124 Hummingbird St

Ellerslie, MD 21529

$149,000C+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,784 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 385 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,381/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $176/mo
• Annual: $2,109/yr
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.06%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 385 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#348 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mt. Savage Elementary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #477 of 860 statewide, top 59%, 220 students, 61% FRL); Mount Savage Middle (math 15% / reading 38%, grade F, #86 of 225 statewide, top 40%, 425 students, 54% FRL); Mountain Ridge High School (math 32% / reading 72%, grade D+, #100 of 222 statewide, top 47%, 736 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $149k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 385 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.