1514 Dorgan St

Jackson, MS 39204

$122,900B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,082 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Active · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,360/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax + insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $208/mo
• Annual: $2,501/yr
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.27%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $34,412

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $123k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $208 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $123k).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($850 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wilkins Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #337 of 375 statewide, top 94%, 316 students, 100% FRL); Cardozo Middle School (math 5% / reading 10%, grade F, #168 of 179 statewide, top 94%, 625 students, 100% FRL); Wingfield High School (math 7% / reading 12%, grade F, #179 of 197 statewide, top 92%, 608 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $1,360/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 1099% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.