3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,841 sqft ·
Built 1952
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 49 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,981/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,409
Tax + insurance
−$734
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,256
Net cashflow
$583/mo
Annual
$6,991/yr
Cap rate
7.37%
Cash-on-cash
3.84%
DSCR
1.17
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$182,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $583 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $598k (8.0% below list).
It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($630k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $598k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in NY, #2,302 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F.
Greenburgh Central School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #267 of 590 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lee F Jackson School (261 students, 41% FRL); Richard J Bailey School (math 45% / reading 53%, grade C-, #294 of 729 statewide, top 41%, 336 students, 0% FRL); Woodlands Middle/High School (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C, #887 of 1,100 statewide, top 82%, 681 students, 66% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.8% in Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NQW8YPFJC1QNVY
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29