501 Blakely Camp Rd

Hot Springs Village, AR 71949

$59,000A-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,704 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,335/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $639/mo
• Annual: $7,666/yr
• Cap rate: 19.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.40%
• DSCR: 3.06
• 1% rule: 2.26%
• Cash to close: $16,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $639 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $52k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($408 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#76 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jessieville School District (rural): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #60 of 238 in AR (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 3.6% in Hot Springs Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.