512 N Ellis St

New Boston, TX 75570

$29,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,181/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $702/mo
• Annual: $8,421/yr
• Cap rate: 34.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.58%
• DSCR: 5.48
• 1% rule: 3.95%
• Cash to close: $8,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,178 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• New Boston ISD (town): math 34% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #518 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.