1040 River Woods Dr

Buckhead, GA 30650

$184,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,797/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $268/mo
• Annual: $3,222/yr
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.22%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $51,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (2.8% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $180k (2.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#334 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Morgan County (town): math 49% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #20 of 174 in GA (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Morgan County Primary School (872 students, 50% FRL); Morgan County Middle School (math 44% / reading 49%, grade D+, #94 of 470 statewide, top 20%, 806 students, 41% FRL); Morgan County High School (math 39% / reading 32%, grade F, #81 of 424 statewide, top 19%, 1,072 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morgan County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.3% in Buckhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.