568 Old Liberty Rd

Monticello, NY 12701

$365,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,181 sqft · Built 1944 · SingleFamily · Pending · 254 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,220/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$490
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-650/mo
• Annual: $-7,805/yr
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.64%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $102,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-650 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (39.2% below list).
• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $222k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#899 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: George L Cooke School (592 students, 71% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 50% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.4% in Monticello — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $2,220/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 814% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?