2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
778 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 30 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,186/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$393
Tax + insurance
−$218
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$249
Net cashflow
$326/mo
Annual
$3,917/yr
Cap rate
11.52%
Cash-on-cash
18.68%
DSCR
1.83
1% rule
1.58%
Cash to close
$20,972
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,027 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
Sherman ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #546 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Dillingham El (837 students, 91% FRL); Piner Middle (math 31% / reading 41%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 818 students, 75% FRL); Sherman H S (math 28% / reading 44%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,155 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 60% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 479 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 3.7% in Sherman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NRKYD92YSCP1XK
· Data 13 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29