7535 Toepfer Rd

Warren, MI 48091

$78,900B

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 700 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,198/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax + insurance: −$251
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $282/mo
• Annual: $3,382/yr
• Cap rate: 10.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.31%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $22,092

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $79k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $72k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $545 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D, employment D.
• Van Dyke Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #512 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 14 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 5.3% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.