4000 Fm 272

Leonard, TX 75423

$290,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Pending · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,357/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-633/mo
• Annual: $-7,601/yr
• Cap rate: 3.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.36%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.47%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-633 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (38.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (53.2% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (53.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#867 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Leonard ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #347 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leonard El (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 244 students, 64% FRL); Leonard J H (math 47% / reading 52%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 200 students, 54% FRL); Leonard H S (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 255 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fannin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.2% in Leonard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.