601 Ogden Rd

New Lenox, IL 60451

$290,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1978 · Other · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,061/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$669
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$643
• Net cashflow: $228/mo
• Annual: $2,740/yr
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.37%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $286k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#127 in IL, #2,348 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Lincoln Way Chsd 210 (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #60 of 620 in IL (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spencer Trail (387 students, 0% FRL); Alex M Martino Jr High School (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #101 of 665 statewide, top 16%, 574 students, 0% FRL); Lincoln-Way Central High School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D-, #53 of 693 statewide, top 8%, 1,962 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 1.7% in New Lenox — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.