4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,876 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 86 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,060/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,319
Tax + insurance
−$419
HOA
−$35
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$433
Net cashflow
$-146/mo
Annual
$-1,750/yr
Cap rate
5.60%
Cash-on-cash
-2.48%
DSCR
0.89
1% rule
0.82%
Cash to close
$70,417
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $251k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (8.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (18.1% below list).
It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $206k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,027 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, schools D-.
Sherman ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #546 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 473 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.7% in Sherman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NSG2PE521MCV63
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29