16164 Knob Hill Dr

Chandler, TX 75762

$106,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 2011 · Manufactured · Pending · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,388/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$556
• Tax + insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $455/mo
• Annual: $5,454/yr
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.38%
• DSCR: 1.82
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $29,680

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $106k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $106k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $100k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $733 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#347 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Owens El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 665 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 66% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Tyler ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 354 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.8% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.